Vast Body of Scientific Data for Past 2,000 Years Affirms Sun, Not CO2, Controls Climate
Vast Body of Scientific Data for Past 2,000 Years Affirms Sun, Not CO2, Controls Climate
New
study by respected Oxford-trained (DPhil) international geological
consultant relying on archaeological, astrophysical, geological and
palaeoclimatological data covering the last 2,000 years shows it is the
Sun, not CO2, that controls global temperature.
Dr Roger Higgs DPhil (geology, Oxford, 1982-86), Geoclastica Ltd, UK, Technical Note 2020-1, 13th Jan 2020 writes:
Vast Body of Scientific Data for Past 2,000 Years Affirms Sun, Not CO2, Controls Climate
Written by Roger Higgs DPhil OxfordNew
study by respected Oxford-trained (DPhil) international geological
consultant relying on archaeological, astrophysical, geological and
palaeoclimatological data covering the last 2,000 years shows it is the
Sun, not CO2, that controls global temperature.
Dr Roger Higgs DPhil (geology, Oxford, 1982-86), Geoclastica Ltd, UK, Technical Note 2020-1, 13th Jan 2020 writes:
Only
key citations are given; please email for others. A cross-match between
graphs of the Sun’s output and Earth’s mean surface temperature is
obvious at two scales: (1) the last 2,000 years (2ky), represented by
proxies (PAGES2k 2017 temperatures; Vieira et al. 2011 cosmogenic
isotopes), both graphs being ‘hockey sticks’ with decadal ‘sawteeth’;
and (2) the last 250y (Berkeley temperature compilation; Chatzistergos
et al. 2017 sunspotgroup numbers).
In both cases, temperature clearly lags the Sun’s output by 80-120y, aligning: (A) the sawteeth;
(B) the ~1820AD and ~1700AD temperature- and solar minima (Little Ice
Age nadir); (C) ensuing ‘modern warming’ and solar buildup to the modern
solar Grand Maximum (GM; 1937-2004), strongest in 2ky; and (D) the
next-strongest GM ~275-345AD and, tellingly, the ~400-450 warmest
half-century (except post-1950?; Pages2k fig7a,b,c). Undeniably the Sun
drives global temperature (Svensmark solar-magnetic/cloudiness link?).
In
turn, sea level (SL; post-1700 tide-gauges) closely cross-matches
temperature, SL lagging ~20y. Both lags probably reflect ocean thermal
inertia and ‘conveyor-belt’ circulation (downwelled solar-heated North
Atlantic water eventually upwells at Antarctica, affecting glacier flow
rate into the ocean, hence SL). A sharp SL rise of 2-3m in only ~100y
~350-450AD reached ~1.5m above today’s SL.
This rise, sandwiched
between SL falls of ~2m in ~200y, is Godwin’s (1943) ‘Romano-British
transgression’ (RBT), aka Dunkirk II (Low Countries, explaining
~410-450AD Frisian-Anglo-Saxon exodus to Britain), St Firmin (France),
Gilbert V (Pacific) and Wulfert (USA). Fairbridge’s updated (1976)
Holocene SL compilation shows this oscillation (and others, likewise
correlatable to solar GMs), verified by many later geological and
archaeological studies. (Note also Blanchon et al. 2009
last-interglacial ~3m rise in <50y.)
A glacio-eustatic origin,
not glacio-hydro-isostatic, is indicated by RBT’s rapidity, great
latitudinal span and associated global warming ~400AD (above). I suggest
upwelling ‘GM-overwarmed’ water unleashed a Marine Ice-Sheet- and/or
Ice-Cliff Instability event. Indeed, Antarctic seabed corrugations and
cross-cutting iceberg ploughmarks suggest recent collapse of
Antarctica’s ice-sheet snout (overhanging the grounding line) after the
buttressing ice-shelf fragmented (Wise et al. 2017 fig 4; “ice
apocalypse” of Goodell 2017).
If correct, the last such event made
the grounding line recede behind its present position and occurred
<11ky ago (Graham et al. 2013). This timing accords with the ~350-450
RBT; moreover Antarctic sea-surface temperature increased ~4°C in
<100y ~300AD (Shevenell et al. 2011 fig 3d).
CONCLUSIONS:
(1) Modern warming coincides with rising CO2 accidentally; (2) warming
will continue until ~2090, lagging ~100y behind the modern solar GM’s
1991 magnetic peak (cosmicrays.oulu.fi); (3) the modern GM portends
another rapid ~3m SL rise by ice collapse, starting by ~2040 and ending
by ~2100 (NB currently increasing Antarctic ice-shelf bottom-water
temperature, under-melting, grounding-line retreat and glacier velocity;
and accelerating world SL rise); (4) IPCC (2014) assertions supposedly
incriminating man’s CO2 emissions but disproven here include: (A) the
Sun is unimportant in climate change; (B) Holocene SL was never higher
than now; and (C) no SL oscillation of the previous 1700y exceeded 25cm
(“medium confidence” only) until the ongoing ~30cm rise since 1700 (in
fact RBT was ~10x greater, and averaged ~30x faster).
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